College Basketball Preview: Teams #12-16
Duke Isn’t Very Good This Year…
12. Washington State, 2006: 26-8
The Cougars seemingly came out of nowhere, to achieve the school’s first 26-win season. With their two most accomplished starters returning, Tony Bennett’s team can easily replicate the blue print again. Seniors Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver will lead the Cougars once against this season, with Low spearheading the backcourt and Weaver anchoring the big men. Low is a great shooter that plays the game in a tenacious manner that fires up his teammates effectively.
Weaver, meanwhile, is one of the most versatile players in the Pac-10. He was the only player in the conference to post a double digit scoring average (11.2 ppg), grab at least five rebounds (5.6 rpg), and dish out at least four dimes (4.2 apg) a game. He has also proven to be an above average defender and a good shot blocker. Bennett implemented the motion offense and hard-nosed man-to-man defense, schemes that worked like gold with his club. However, Washington State doesn’t challenge itself enough in the non-conference schedule and will have a hard time getting past the Sweet 16.
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Taylor Rochestie: A perfect point guard for Bennett’s system, but when he’s scoring he adds another dimension.
SG: Derrick Low: The Hawaiian no longer has to worry about being the point; his sole focus is making the hustle plays and shooting the rock.
SF: Kyle Weaver: Played well as a member of the American Pan Am team who could see his great number improve.
PF: Daven Harmeling: A little out of his element bodying with the bigs inside, but a great shooter that hit 55 3’s while shooting at a 43% clip.
PF: Robbie Cowgill: The 6’10” senior can really make the Cougars a powerhouse if he can develop consistency around the basket.
13. Marquette, 2006: 24-10
In the loaded Big East, the Golden Eagles are expected to only be the third best team, but this group has the potential to be as good as Louisville or Georgetown. All seven of the team’s major contributors are back for Tom Crean’s club. The backcourt is terrific, with Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, and Wesley Matthews forming a formidable trio. James is spectacular as an undersized point guard, penetrating the lane relentlessly without fear. The 5’11” James will need to improve on his shaky shooting (38.4%); if he can do that, watch out. McNeal was named the Defensive Player of the Year in the Big East, and is as good a perimeter as there is. Getting production from Ousmane Barro and Lazar Hayward on a consistent basis is what set this team back a year ago. They will work to improve on that in 07-08. Crean has worked this team hard preseason, with hopes that Marquette can improve on its first round loss from a year ago.
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Dominic James: The speedy James was fourth in the Big East in assists a year ago, but he is a shoot-first guard.
SG: Jerel McNeal: McNeal’s defense holds the team together, but his offense is pretty solid as well
G: Wesley Matthews: Provides Marquette with a much-needed third scoring threat, he does a little bit of everything for Coach Crean.
PF: Outsmane Barro: The senior has showed flashes of being a threat in the post, but still needs to polish up his game to stack up with the Big East’s best big men.
PF: Lazar Hayward: The sophomore averaged an astonishing 6.6 points, while playing in only 16 minutes a game a year ago.
14. Texas, 2006: 25-10
Kevin Durant provided us with an entertaining show during his freshman year, but even with his defection, Rick Barnes has some serious talent. D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams just got better and better as the season progressed, and are now the undisputed leaders of this team. As a freshman, Augustin was fourth in the nation in assists, but still managed to average 14.4 ppg, despite playing alongside Durant. Abrams was a sniper from long range, hitting 42% of his shots behind the arc. He hit a Big-12 record 120 treys last year, and there’s no reason he can’t improve on that number this season. For all the talent in the backcourt, the Longhorns have a number of question marks up front. Sophomore Damion James will be the swingman for Barnes as the coach hopes to alleviate the pressure of having James guard players that are too tall for him. Connor Atchley and Matt Hill, who combined to average a paltry 6 points a game, will be the bruisers down the low, but are very vulnerable. Without a consistent third scoring threat, Barnes’ team will struggle to compete with the elite, but Augustin and Abrams are solid enough to keep Texas in the top 25 and a NCAA bid.
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: D.J. Augustin: Was impressive in setting up Durant last year; Barnes hopes he looks for his shot more this season.
SG: A.J. Abrams: Love the 42% from deep, but Barnes warns that Abrams has questionable shot selection at times.
SF: Damion Jones: An athletic slasher who is an underrated defender; will need to be the leader of the frontcourt.
PF: Matt Hill: Was part of the rotation in the first half of the season, but is still largely unproven
C: Connor Atchley: A little more experienced than Hill, but has never had the pressure of shouldering the load down low the way he does now.
15. North Carolina State, 2006: 20-16
The Wolfpack made a sensational run in the ACC Tournament a year ago to turnaround a disappointing season. With many of their heavy hitters returning, Sidney Lowe’s team looks primed to make an ascension up the ACC standings. Four double digit scorers return, including power forward Brandon Costner. Costner carried this team on his back for large portions a year ago; if he were wearing a Tar Heels jersey, he would receive the same recognition as Tyler Hansborough. A year ago, he averaged 17 points and 7 rebounds, while giving fans in Raleigh a true leader. The significant question surrounding the Wolfpack is finding a point guard to replace steady Engin Atsur. Transfer Farnold Degand looks to be odds-on favorite to be the point guard once the season rolls around, but he’s competing with Marques Johnson, a transfer from Tennessee who won’t be eligible until the second semester. Freshman recruit J.J. Hickson will come off the bench, and add depth to the frontcourt as another skilled low post threat.
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Farnold Degand: Most likely to lose his job when Johnson is reinstated, unless he can shine.
SG: Courtney Falls: Great defender who had a solid season (11 ppg), but Lowe wants him to be more aggressive offensively
SF: Gavin Grant: A slasher who fills up the box score and provides a great contrast to the Wolfpack’s dominating frontcourt.
PF: Brandon Costner: There’s no doubt that Costner will make All-ACC First Team, he should come close to averaging a double double.
PF: Ben McCauley: A veteran that will match Costner point for point as well as rebound for rebound all season long.
16. Duke, 2006: 22-11
The Blue Devils suffered through their worst season since 1997, the last time Coach K’s team failed to reach the Sweet 16. Duke lost a number of close games, as their star players just couldn’t make the plays during crunch time to win the tight ones. The time has passed when you could expect Duke to be ranked #1 for the majority of the season; this is a talented group that is still very much of a work in progress. The work begins in the post where the Devils must deal with the defection of Josh McRoberts. Brian Zoubek is the perfect man for the job at seven feet, but he has considerable room for improvement, especially in the ACC. Duke is no longer a team that will overwhelm you with their offensive firepower; instead, they have relied on spectacular team defense. Without an intimidating presence in the middle, this unit won’t be as suffocating as last year, but with recruits like Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, and Taylor King, this team should have more weapons offensively. The Blue Devils will win more games than last year, but still aren’t ready to compete at a Final Four yet.
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Greg Paulus: Lacks the quickness to deal with the nation’s elite point guards, but if his second half surge is any indication, this could be a solid year for the junior.
SG: Jon Scheyer: The sophomore was Duke’s most pleasant surprise a year ago, and could become an All-ACC performer this year.
SF: Gerald Henderson: Needs to be Duke’s breakout player this year to ease the pressure off Paulus and Nelson.
SF: DeMarcus Nelson: Duke’s leading returning scorer will have to matchup against some bigger players this season.
C: Brian Zoubek: The 7’1” sophomore is the key to Duke getting and staying in the top 10.
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