Thoughts on March Madness and UNC’s defense.

NEIL JOSHI, The Sports Lounge
JSB COLLEGE BASKETBALL COLUMNIST

Clemson entered its crucial matchup with North Carolina having never won in Chapel Hill, an amazing 52-game losing streak for the Tigers that tied an NCAA record for the longest home winning streak one team had over another. Adding some more fuel to the fire was the Tigers’ heartbreaking loss at Littlejohn to the Heels on January 6th where Wayne Ellington’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer clinched a mesmerizing 90-88 overtime victory for the road team. Clemson entered this game with history and revenge on their minds. For about 37 minutes, that was carrying the Tigers to an impressive road win that would put Clemson in a three-way tie for second place at the top of the ACC.

Trailing by 11 with time slipping away, it seemed certain that Roy Williams’ bunch was headed toward a dubious defeat. But, Tyler Hansbrough would not let his team have to deal with a disappointing two-game home losing streak. The junior’s competitive fire was the key ingredient towards a riveting comeback that left Clemson fans, players, and coach Oliver Purnell wondering how this could happen yet again. The two-time All-America had 39 points and 13 rebounds to help the Heels come back and win an entertaining 103-93 game that topped the original and went two overtimes.

No one has considered the Tar Heels defense to be up to par this season, nearly always putting the offense in a position where it’s forced to score 80 or 90 each night to win games. The third-ranked Tar Heels have shown they have the firepower to sustain that pressure for most of the season, but a troubled D will kill you in the end. In the final minutes of Sunday night’s win, North Carolina finally started playing hard on the “other” end, and got the ball rolling towards making NCAA history.

The Heels’ 53rd consecutive win over the Tigers at home seemed nearly identical to the first one when Clemson played near perfect ball for the majority game yet still couldn’t tackle the beast. They hit 12 3-pointers, had five players in double figures, and were able to outplay North Carolina at their own game. Their downfall, however, came at the free throw line where the Tigers shot 14% (1-7), hitting their one and only free throw late in the first overtime. North Carolina’s ridiculous 30-point age in that department will be even more painful come Selection Sunday.

Clemson looks destined to be one of the most hotly contested bubble teams on that fateful day with a 17-6 (5-4) record. Last season, the Tigers were left out the Dance even after being the nation’s final team to lose, starting the year 17-0. A weak nonconference schedule is what did them in, not to mention a 4-10 finish after the perfect start. This year, Clemson has shown that they have learned from their mistakes by scheduling much more challenging competition pre-conference, and this year they have a much more passable resume. Sitting at 5-4 in the ACC following the loss, Clemson is left to wonder where they would be if they could have just held on against the Heels and have some faith that maybe this disastrous streak may come to an end next year.

With the tournament just over a month away, its time to start looking ahead and start projecting the brackets. Here’s a look at my top 16 seeds (4 in each region) and the most interesting bubble cases as we head toward the stretch run of conference play.

#1 seeds: Memphis (first overall), Duke, Kansas, Tennessee

#2 seeds: North Carolina, UCLA, Stanford, Georgetown

#3 seeds: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Texas, Xavier

#4 seeds: Drake, Indiana, Connecticut, Notre Dame


Noteworthy Bubble Teams

Dayton, 16-6 (4-5): The Flyers have gone 2-5 in their last seven, and in an improving A-10 Conference, an at-large bid for this team is getting harder and harder to justify. Granted, this has not been the same team since Chris Wright (10.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg) went down. Dayton is 13-1 with him and they have wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh. A .500 conference record should be enough to get them in, which is very possible with their remaining schedule.

West Virginia, 16-7 (5-5): Bob Huggins’ team missed out on a huge chance to pick up a meaningful win on the road when Ronald Ramon hit a three to help Pittsburgh escape a 55-54 win on Thursday night. The Mountaineers could have really used any win over a top-25 team, but a road win that is taken away in that fashion is demoralizing to handle. The Big East is stacked this season, and West Virginia is one of several teams in the conference that will be sweating over the final weeks. Syracuse, Marquette, and even Seton Hall are all in contention for a maximum of probably two bids from this pool of four.

Mississippi, 16-5 (3-5): The Rebels jumped out of the game quickly, starting 13-0 before losing a barnburner to Tennessee (#1 RPI) by two points. Four losses in their last five has dropped Ole Miss to only the seventh best record in an SEC Conference that would be lucky to get five bids. A 1-4 record on the road is not Tournament-worthy, but wins against Clemson and Vanderbilt are. Mississippi has a lot of winnable games coming up, and will need to take advantage to boost their marginal conference record and sneak in.

USC, 15-8 (6-5): O.J. Mayo’s freshman campaign hasn’t quite been as smooth as he’d hoped for, beginning with a loss to Mercer in his debut, a 10-14 team from the Atlantic Sun. Since then, the Trojans have adopted a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde type of personality, scaring the lights out of top-5 teams like Kansas and Memphis in addition to a win at UCLA. These encouraging results are contrasted with games like Saturday in Pullman where USC simply didn’t compete in getting blown out by Washington State, who entered the game on a three-game losing streak. USC has a solid nonconference resume, but will probably need to beat either of the Pac-10’s best, UCLA or Stanford, at home to feel safe.

Davidson, 16-6 (15-0): It’s easy to see from their record, both conference and overall, that this small school from the Southern Conference has done the ultimate thing and scheduled a rugged nonconference slate. Losses in competitive games to Duke, North Carolina, UCLA, and North Carolina State have tested the Wildcats enough to run circles around their conference foes this season. The problem becomes the situation where this team somehow fails to win their conference tournament. Are they worthy of an at-large? Davidson is hoping they can avoid this potential pitfall, but if they fail the committee should probably let this team in with the fourth-best nonconference schedule in the entire nation. It certainly isn’t a guarantee, however.

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