Big free agency only serves to raise expecations artificially high.

MITCHELL BLATT

The Browns have started out free agency by resigning the fourth ranked QB for interceptions, and Dante Stallworth, Corey Williams, and Shaun Rogers. Stallworth will add another deep threat to an already-strong receiving core of Kellen Winslow, Braylon Edwards, and Joe Jurevicius. Williams and Rogers are much needed improvements on defensive line.

But, the Browns overpreformed greatly last year, beating only one winning team, and now, with a much tougher schedule, will be hard-pressed to do as well, even with the new acquisitions.

Last year, the Browns won 10 games, bringing ecstatic expectations to a city that some were reffering to as “Believe-land.” They played only three winning teams and beat one. That’s why I don’t believe.

Their scoring margin of +20 points, was the second smallest for a team with 10 or more wins. Only two other double-digit win teams, the Titans and the Giants, had scoring margins of less than 100 points.

Even against the worst teams, the Browns could hardly win. They lost to the Raiders week three. They beat the Rams by 7. They beat the Ravens by 3, after a missed field goal was overturned. They beat the Jets by 6. Their only win over a winning team was a 3 point home win over the Seahawks, a team that went 3-5 on the road.

Now, how do you think they are going to do against a schedule that features 9 winning teams? In 2008, they face the Colts, Cowboys, Giants, Jaguars, Titans, Eagles, and Redskins, not to mention the Steelers twice.

If the Browns win one-third of their games against winning teams, like they did last year–and that would constitute a good preformance against those teams–they would need to win all 7 of their games against losing teams to match last year’s 10 wins.

Considering that they had a 9-3 record against losing teams last year, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Only two of their opponents with losing records are non-division matchups. They did have a 3-1 record against the Bengals and Ravens last year.

The number that sticks out is 1. To be perfect (even against the far-from-perfect) is hard for anyone, especially the Browns. The Browns are about as consistent as a John Kerry-Barack Obama “change” ticket.

Nowhere is that inconsistency more evident than with running back Jamal Lewis. Jamal Lewis acheived five 100 yard games. Half of the Browns wins were 100 yard games for him. There were only two games that he broke 60 yards and the Browns didn’t win. During one particularly brutal stretch early in the season, Lewis ran for 56 yards, 64 yards, 11 yards (then injured), missed the next game, 61 yards, 37 yards, then 35 yards.

The NFL happened to be pretty weak last year and the Browns had an easy schedule. Now they have a tough schedule, and they won’t do as well. They open next season with the Ravens and the Bengals at home, what will probably both be big wins, so the hype might continue for a little bit. But, week three is the Steelers and week five is the Colts.

The rest of the division features the same tough schedule as the Browns, all facing the entire NFC East and other tough AFC opponents, so the Browns may be able to contend for a division title with 8 or 9 wins. But, having lost to the Steelers twice–the Browns haven’t ever beat them since 2004–the Steelers will win.

Popularity: 2% [?]