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Conference Finals and Their Affect on Bubble Teams

NEIL JOSHI, The Sports Lounge
JSB COLLEGE BASKETBALL COLUMNIST

The NCAA Tournament doesn’t start until March 20th, and Selection Sunday isn’t for six days, but for all intents and purposes March Madness is already in full swing. Over the last week, five teams have clinched a bid to the Tournament, and many of the smaller conference tournaments have gotten underway. For those of you that think these games don’t matter, you would be sadly mistaken.

The events of conference tournaments like the Colonial Athletic Association where top-seed Virginia Commonwealth lost last night can have a large impact on such bubble teams like Maryland, who blew a huge opportunity to consolidate an at-large berth, or Ohio State, who greatly enhanced their chances by upsetting Michigan State at home. Teams like Syracuse and Virginia Tech are on the edge of their seats, hoping that small schools from one-bid leagues like Davidson and South Alabama win their conference tournaments so that an unworthy team doesn’t steal one of their bids. Virginia Commonwealth’s upset loss to William & Mary in the semifinals of the CAA has already guaranteed one spot is gone, and a few more are possible over the course of this week.

Major conference tournaments will not begin until Wednesday, with the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden, headlining the action that starts on that day. No conference tournament around the nation has the appeal or drama of that gem. Every year, the Big East Tournament always finds a way to have more than its fair share of riveting moments. Until then, six bids will be handed out over the next two days, with four games determining NCAA participants taking place on Monday.

Colonial Athletic Association Final
William & Mary vs. George Mason (ESPN, 7 pm ET)

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Final
Siena vs. Rider (ESPN2, 7 pm ET)

West Coast Conference Final
Gonzaga vs. San Diego (ESPN, 9 pm ET)

Southern Conference Final
Davidson vs. Elon (ESPN2, 9 pm ET)

Over the weekend, several teams were able to nail down NCAA berths, and can breathe a little easier when they take the court for their conference tournaments. Among them, USC looked most impressive, taking out seventh ranked Stanford in convincing fashion to virtually guarantee a spot. Kentucky, a team that was left for dead not so long ago, has battled back and finished an inspired 12-4 season in the SEC over Florida. They will be in terrific shape if they can win one game in the SEC Tournament. Three teams in the Big 12, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Baylor all got important victories in conference, and appear to be in good shape for Selection Sunday this week.

Many other teams failed to take advantage in key games to end their regular season. Maryland had probably the biggest setback, losing to 10th place Virginia, 91-76. The loss dropped the Terps to 8-8 in conference and a shaky 18-13 overall. Even as one of only two teams to beat North Carolina, Maryland must win at least two games in the ACC Tournament to even be considered, the first is against Boston College, and the second would be against Boston College. To feel safe, the Terps will probably have to make the ACC Final, which would likely require a win over Duke in the semis. Stranger things have happened. Arizona and Florida also dropped the ball in key games against other bubble teams, and face a tough road to make the tournament. The Wildcats play Oregon State, an absolute push-over, in the first round of the Pac-10 and have nothing to gain from that game. They will need to upset Stanford in the quarters to lock up a bid, and have played the Cardinal extremely tough in close losses earlier in the year. Florida lost to Kentucky yesterday, and face a game against Alabama where they don’t have much to gain, but everything to lose. A win there, and a win against Mississippi State in the next round would have the two-time defending champions feeling a lot better about themselves.

Here’s an updated seed report of the top 16 teams in the bracket, schools that won’t have much to worry about come Sunday.

#1’s: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Tennessee
#2’s: Texas, Kansas, Duke, Georgetown
#3’s: Xavier, Stanford, Wisconsin, Louisville
#4’s: Connecticut, Notre Dame, Purdue, Drake

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