Schill for the Hall? You bet your bloody sock!
J Rose
Boston-based opinion with all the subtlety of a sledgehammer
Last Friday morning Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling informed the world on his weekly radio show that he would have to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery, and at 41-years old and facing a lengthy rehab, he has probably pitched his last game in the major leagues.
Shortly following that news the debate began: is he or isn’t he a Hall of Fame player?
For days the topic has burned up the internet, causing a tidal wave of comments favoring both sides of the argument. Those who say Schill is not Hall-worthy cite his relatively low wins total (216), his lack of a Cy Young Award winning season, and his penchant for acting like a total a-hole.
Those in favor (aye!) rattle off his place on the career strikeout list (14th), his 3 20-win seasons, his stellar postseason record (11-2) and the fact that he was one of the best big game pitchers in the history of the game.
We leave out the part about him being a complete pompous a-hole.
One of the best things about baseball, and sports in general, is debating a players’ worth in the grand scheme of his sport. These debates have helped make the games more interesting, greatly aided in the sale of adult beverages, caused many a nasty fight, and are the basis for all sports related sites on the web.
And this one is no different. In fact it might be the mack daddy of them all, next to those of Pete Rose and Barry Bonds, two criminals who should have their own separate Hall of Shame.
Like I said the main point for the naysayers regarding Schill’s candidacy always point to his wins total as reason numero uno as to why he should be excluded. With 216 wins in 20 seasons he is well below the long accepted threshold of 250-300 wins for a HOF pitcher. Which is total bullshit.
In this day and age reaching that wins mark is as much of a pipe dream as Amy Winehouse ever being sober.
Of the active wins leaders Roidger Clemens is first with 354, next is Greg Maddux (350), Tom Glavine (305) and then Randy Johnson (288). Assuming Big Unit doesn’t get 12 more wins thanks to his broken down brittle frame, the next closest guy to 300 wins is Mike Mussina at 260. Is it possible Moose could get 40 more victories before he hangs up his cleats? Sure. It’s also possible that I win a Pullitzer Prize, it just ain’t gonna happen.
After Moose there are seven hurlers with over 200 wins, and then the numbers drop off considerably. Tim Wakefield (172), Bartolo Colon (150) and Aaron Sele (148) are nearest the 200 ‘W’ plateau.
My point is there might not even be many more 200 win pitchers, let alone 250-300, so throw that argument out the window.
Next Schill might not have won a Cy Young, but he did finish second three times, twice to teammate Johnson (2001 & 2002) when he barely trailed him in relevant stats, and once in 2004 when he was nipped by an in-his-prime Johan Cytana. Not too shabby.
As for him being an arrogant, loud, opinionated jackass, well that I can’t debate. But we all know there are plenty of a-holes in the Hall now, so let’s leave that fact alone.
What I can say is that he is 14th all time in strikeouts with 3,116 and fifth in post season wins. He had eight season with at least 15 wins, led the league in wins and strikeouts twice, complete games five times, and strikeout-to-walk ratio five times.
Throw in six All Star appearances, an NLCS MVP award and co-MVP of the 2001 Series and three World Series rings, and all signs point to a Hall of Fame career.
And make no mistake he will make it to the Hall based on his postseason accomplishments.
First he and Johnson teamed to defeat the hated Stankees and bring a championship to the desert, then he went to Beantown before the 2004 season and basically guaranteed a title for a town that hadn’t had one in 86 years.
One miraculous, 21-win, bloody sock-soaked season later the man delivered on his promise when he led the Sox to it’s first championship since 1918.
He won a couple of memorable games, Game 6 of the ALCS and Game 2 of the WS, with a detached tendon in his right ankle, securing his place in the annals of baseball history by accomplishing something that Clemens, Pedro, Tiant, Lonborg and Lee could not do before him.
Schilling reversed the curse and in one season made eight decades of embarrassment, futility and ridicule disappear.
That alone is worth a place in the Hall in my book.
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1. If reversing the curse is all it takes to get into the Hall, then we may as well put Dave Roberts in there, because he had just as big a role
2. Schilling’s postseason numbers do help him, but there’s only 19 starts there. I put more sway into the 436 he made in the regular season. But he is probably this generation’s best postseason pitcher, which is saying a lot
3. Schilling only won 206 games as a starter in his career. 10 came out of the bullpen. There are going to be plenty of 200 game winners in the majors. Tim Hudson is at 145 and he just turned 32. He’ll cross 200 with no problem. Roy Halladay has 122 and he’s 31. He’s also going to make it. CC Sabathia is 28 and he’s at 109. Carlos Zambrano is at 92 but he’s just 27. Jake Peavy is also 27 and he’s got 83. All those guys are excellent pitchers in the prime of their careers who should easily cross 200 wins.
4. Schilling was probably Cy Young worthy 3 seasons of his career. He’s never technically “won” the award, but he was the 2nd most dominant pitcher in baseball in 2001, 2002 and 2004. That’s really going to help him.
5. The problem with Schilling is that that win total is so low. There are 79 guys in baseball who have won more than him, and that’s a lot. In the next 6-7 years, before he comes up for election he’s going to be passed by some guys as well. (Since he hasn’t retired yet, you don’t know when he comes up):
Andy Pettitte
Pedro (Unless his arm explodes)
Tim Hudson
So now you’re talking 82 guys with more wins than him. That’s a lot of guys. You brought up Mike Mussina’s win total, and you’re right, he may be the last 300 game winner, if he manages to make it, (which he won’t). But while Mussina was never the dominant pitcher that Schilling was, he’s also been more consistent than Schilling, which is why his win total is so much higher. Mussina is at 262 right now, and he’s going to be passing some guys in the future. He’s only 11 wins away from being 32nd on that list. That’s this year and one more, assuming he doesn’t retire. He’ll likely wind up with 275 if he goes one more year. I’ve heard Mussina is a borderline candidate. It’s going to be a tough call to keep a guy with 275 wins out when you’re inviting a guy with 216 in.
Bill James came up with four stats to measure a player’s dominanace. The Black Ink test, the Grey ink test, and HOF standards. You can read the descriptions on his site, but here’s where those two guys score
Black Ink
Schilling: 42
Mussina: 16
Grey Ink
Schilling: 205
Mussina: 237
HOF Standards
Schilling: 46
Mussina: 42
So, it’s kind of a coin flip.
I don’t think Schilling is a lock for the Hall, neither is Mussina. Ultimately, both could get in, but I think Curt Schilling’s low win total is really going to hurt him
Patrick, you bring up some very good points, and I apppreciate all the time and effort you put into your comment.
Howeva, if I can go Stephen A. Smith for a moment, as I pointed out the days of the 250 win HOF pitcher are liekly gone. That means guys with lower wins totals, such as Schill, will be likely candidates for the Hall.
Hudson needs 55 more wins and he has averaged 14.5 wins per season for his career. That means it would take him almost four more years to reach 200, at which time he will be 37 years old. To say he’ll cross 200 wins with no problem is a bit premature, but even if he does he won’t go far past the mark, and he has no titles under his belt.
As for guys like Zambrano, Halladay and Sabathia, it’s impossible to predict how many wins they’ll get because devastating, career-threatening injuries are commonplace for pitchers, especially ones that throw hard (Zambrano) and pitch a lot of innings (Halladay).
I realize Schill’s wins total is low, but the fact that the bar for wins is being lowered coupled with his success in the postseason should be good enough to get him in, if not on the first ballot than certainly before the Veteran’s Committee kicks in.
Only time will tell though. Thanks for the discussion.