Picks so risky you’ll be saying, ‘did he really just say that?”

SCOTT JACOBS

The Indians will not be in the World Series as I predicted at the start of the year… so who’s got the best shot?… O, cmon, did you really think I was going to answer that in the first line? No way Jose.

The White Sox are my darkhorse pick to win the American League

At the beginning of the year who would have thought the White Sox would be where they are? With two powers looming in the division- Cleveland and Detroit- Chicago seemed doomed to another disappointing year. But lo and behold the White Sox are not only winning, but they’re winning with a similar formula that broke an 87 year championship-less curse in 2005. Pitching. The White Sox are second in the AL in E.R.A, fourth in wins, and third in total runs allowed. The 2005 Sox were first in the AL in E.R.A, first in wins, and third in total runs allowed. The numbers are pretty close. And then there’s this: the Sox are 47-1 with a lead entering the ninth. Of course: Chicago’s ‘other’ team is not without flaws. Namely the fact that they are terrible coming from behind. The Sox are 0-35 trailing after eight. The power is there though: Chicago leads the AL in home runs and they’re looking at a probable five guys hitting twenty or more long balls. In other words: great E.R.A., leader in home runs, that sounds like a very scary proposition for another team if the Sox can get to October.

The Marlins, yes the Florida Marlins, are my darkhorse to win the National League

That is of course if they can get to the playoffs. All they do when they get to October is win championships, and both of their title teams were huge surprises. Now, before you laugh at me, and throw rocks, consider that Florida has a lot of pieces that could potentially fall in place, giving them a shot to really shock people. That shaky rotation that has been brutal to watch at times this year, appears to finally be coming together. Ricky Nolasco (if he played for a big market team he would’ve been an All Star) has been dynamite lately and has emerged as the ace of the staff. Scott Olsen has a solid 3.7 E.R.A., but the wild cards for the team that has never won a division title is Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad. Both were great last week, as Johnson coming back from Tommy John surgery, and Volstad, making his first start in the bigs and throwing 8 2/3 of 1 run ball, showed great promise. The Marlins, coming off a 6-5 road trip will get their shot, as they have a lot of games left against the Mets, Phillies, Cardinals, and Cubs. If the home runs keep coming, and the pitching continues to improve, watch out for this homer happy bunch.

Other predictions

Matt Holiday isn’t going to the Mets…

Nor is he going to any other team for that matter. Long term, the Rockies may not want to pay him the huge contract he will soon command, but Colorado would want a haul for the NL runner up in MVP voting last year, and no one’s jumping at the bit just yet to trade a trifecta of blue chippers for the Rockies’ slugger.

The NL West is a two team race, and one of those teams will finish above .500

The best division last year will still remain the worst this year, however, no one is finishing with the worst division winning record ever. Not this year. The D’backs have too good of a one-two combo in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren to keep sliding, and the Dodgers don’t let anyone score runs. Of course, they also cant score runs themselves. Nevertheless, expect one of the two to correct things, and get on the right track. Arizona was just four games above .500 last All Star Break before they roared to the best record in the NL. No one’s predicting that this year, but the West will be won with a team saving face, and you can take to the bank.

The Angels will win 100 games

No one did it last year. In fact, since 2004, just one team has reached the century mark in the AL: the 2004 Yankees who won 101 games. The Angels were at 57 during the break. Why will the Los Angeles Anaheimers win 47 more games you ask? Because the Angels are a terrific road team. At 31-18, they are astonishingly, the only team in the AL to have a winning record away from home. And they’re also pretty darn good. That helps too.

The Yankees will not make the playoffs

This is more of a gut feeling then anything, but a small part of me, thinks the Twins just might be good enough to win the Wild Card. The bigger part of me just doesn’t trust New York’s pitching, and hey, all good things must come to an end eventually. Why not end this streak the same year Yankee Stadium ends its glorious run?

Dan Uggla will have a monster end of July

After a miserable All Star game which saw him commit an All Star game record three errors, and strikeout in critical situations, Florida’s second baseman will bounce back strong with a fantastic month. Uggla was shelved for more then a week and a half with an injury, and is still trying to get back into the swing of things, but once he gets his footing back, look out.

Ken Griffey Jr. will not be traded, but Greg Maddux might be moved

The Padres are going nowhere, and Maddux’s Hall of Fame career is winding down. It wouldn’t shock me if the pitiful Pads, dealt the ace to a contending team to give him one last shot to win another ring before Maddux hangs it up. He could help a contender, and his 3-8 record is more a result of a bad Pads team then a total decline in skills. His E.R.A. is under four, and given some run support, who knows if Maddux could be an impact player down the stretch.

Ben Sheets will be the most sought after free agent on the 2008 market

The guy has filthy stuff and the Brewers don’t appear able to afford him after this year; hence the Sabathia trade to win now. But someone is going to get themselves a top of the line pitcher this off-season, and when healthy, Sheets is as good as anyone in the game.

If I had to rank a team’s chances of getting to the World Series at this point…

AL
1. Angels- this team is loaded from top to bottom
2. Red Sox- how will Big Papi do after being sidelined for a while?
3. White Sox- their pitching shows flashes of the 2005 team that won it all
4. Rays- meaningful baseball in the second half for Tampa? That’s reason enough to give em a shot
5. Yankees- it’s been seven years since they won their last title. Make it eight after 08
6. Twins- scrappy small ball team is good enough to stick around and surprise some people

NL
1. Cubs- they’re loaded… with huge expectations for the second half
2. Brewers- the Brewers haven’t even made the playoffs since 1982. A dynamic duo just might deliver them a pennant
3. Phillies- absolutely loaded offensively, and Brad Lidge is having a super year. Now about a few of those starting pitchers…
4. Mets- was the nine game winning streak a sign or a tease?
5. Marlins- logic be damned, this team just might be a team of destiny
6. Cardinals- a team to keep an eye on the second half, though they seem due for a dropoff

Have at it… I just know you’re chomping at the bits!

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