It’s a crazy world with twists and turns, though not nearly as confusing as the wild (and remarkably mediocre) ACC

SCOTT JACOBS

Let’s just get a few things out of the way before we move onto the good stuff:

1) The ACC is so mediocre this year that I will go on record stating that I don’t think one team from that conference deserves a BCS berth over a team like Utah/Boise State.  There I said it.  The ACC is like musical chairs.  The teams alternate in and out of the top 25’s lower echelon on a weekly basis, proving that no one is even remotely close to BCS worthy.  If the season ended today, and it doesn’t fortunatley, Miami and Maryland would play for a spot in the Orange Bowl.  I have just one question and then I’ll open up the floor:  Really?

2) Kansas was a fluke.  Steve Spurrier was an idiot taking the reigns at South Carolina a few years ago, and Missouri has a chance to put the entire BCS title picture into total chaos mode.  But more on that later.

3) LSU scored 30 points in the fourth quarter to defeat Troy 40-31 at home.  Fans apparently left in the third when Troy went up 31-3!  Look, LSU did win, but man are they a joke compared to last year.  In my opinion this further validates the jurisdiction that if they’re one of the top four SEC teams (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and them) then the SEC is not really that special.

4) Can’t wait to see how many people disagree with me about the SEC.

5) This had to be one of the most boring unimpressive days of college football I can remember in years.  After the last few weeks this sort of felt like a joke.  When South Carolina-Florida is the best you can do, and when the schedule is so unimpressive that ESPN’s College Gameday goes to Florida A & M for the Hampton-FAMU game, you know it’s a sad week for college football.  Nothing against those schools, but ‘are you freaking kidding me?’

And with that book closed we move on to the national title picture.  Warning: content might not be suitable for children.  Or any sane individual for that matter.

1. Alabama (11-0)
Beat Auburn and then Florida in the SEC title game and the Crimson Tide can book their national title game invite.  Of course, lose either game and they’re done.  We think.

2. Texas Tech (10-0)
Texas, Oklahoma  State, and now Oklahoma.  The Red Raiders have defeated anything thrown their way this year, but their toughest tests have come at home.  Next week they travel to Oklahoma in what should be a wildly entertaining, and unbelievably high scoring affair. Win that, and their game with Baylor and their clash with Missouri in the Big 12 title game and they go to the title game.  Run the table and the Red Raiders will be playing in Miami without a doubt.  Lose at Oklahoma or against Mizzou, and well, things really, really get interesting.

3.  Texas (10-1)
Texas’ only loss was to unbeaten Texas Tech so the Horns are still holding onto the hopes that they can catapult back into the national title game picture (and even their conference championship picture) with a little help, and a win against awful Texas A & M.  This is where things get really interesting.  Let’s assume for a second that Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma.  What then?  Logic would lead one to believe that Texas (next in the BCS’s pecking order) at #3 would move to #2.  But not so fast.  Chances seem more likely that an Oklahoma win would vault them to number two.  I don’t know this for a fact, and I don’t pretend to know how the BCS truly calculates this stuff, but Texas’ best chance almost seems like Oklahoma beating the Red Raiders, and then losing to Mizzou in the Big 12 title game, thus opening the door for Texas to make the national title game.  But, can you fail to win your division, nevermind your conference, and earn the right to play for a national title?  We heard this question a lot last year, and it will certainly come to fruition this year if a similar scenario to the Georgia 2007 team unfolds.

Now it should be noted that an Oklahoma win over Texas Tech could just as easily propel the Horns to second in the BCS, and first in their division after all the tiebreakers are settled (the important one being that if three or more teams are tied it comes down to their BCS ranking), or something like that.  And while it’s crazy to think that the BCS title game could actually shut out a Big 12 team it doesn’t seem completely unfeasible.

Example:

Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma (eliminated from national title contention).
Oklahoma/Texas goes to the Big 12 title game and loses to Missouri. (that team would be eliminated from title contention).
Team that didn’t make conference title game of Texas/Oklahoma gets slighted by BCS because they didn’t win their division. (thus leaving open the possibility of a USC or even a (dare I say it) Penn State to re-enter the mix).

4. Florida (9-1)
The Gators are in a unique position. If they win out they’re about as much of a lock as anybody to play for a national title.  But how? Well, the Gators have a few things in their favor: 1) they’re in the SEC so they already have a lofty standing with the voters, and 2) that they play Alabama in the conference title game.  Throw in a road game at rival FSU and it adds up to the perfect mix for UF to jump a few teams and into one of the top two spots.  Here’s what they need to do: defeat the Citadel and FSU, then hope that the Crimson Tide are still undefeated heading into the SEC title game, and beat them.  That would secure them a title spot.  However, what if Alabama isn’t undefeated when the two play and is instead seventh or even eighth?  Then what happens? Of course, this is all rendered moot if UF loses a game.

Therein lies an even more intriguing scenario: If UF loses to FSU (extrememly unlikely) and then beats unbeaten Alabama in the SEC title game, along with the Big 12 winer not being named Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech, is it actually feasible that the national title game could pit neither a Big 12 nor a SEC team?  I actually think it is.

If we go back to the original scenario above where Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma and the winner of the Big 12 South loses to Missouri leaving the Big 12’s best team a team that didn’t win their division, and UF and Alabama both lose once, we could be left with a (dare I say it again) Penn State-USC title game.  Now this would take extreme circumstances.  But if you really think about it, is it that far fetched? Rival games are always tricky, let’s say it’s possible that UF trips up in Tallahassee.  And the Gators are still a phenomenol team so they could definitely beat Alabama.  And if the Big 12’s best team couldn’t win their division that would potentially leave the one loss Nittany Lions and one loss Trojans to face off in Miami.

Unlikely, yes. Impossible, no.

5. Oklahoma (9-1)
This is where the possibilities get really fun.  Imagine this: the Sooners beat Texas Tech, and then lose to Oklahoma State.  Everyone is saying the Texas Tech game is huge, and it is, but Oklahoma State will be no walk in the park either.  For the Sooners its obvious what they have to do: win out. But even then it’s unclear if they’d even win their division.  It seems like they would. Currently the Sooners are three spots behind Texas Tech, and two behind Texas.  If they beat the Red Raiders, Oklahoma would at least jump one spot (probably more).  From there is where it gets interesting.  Let’s assume for a second that a win over the Red Raiders gets them to number three, and they jump UF, but still trail Texas.  Would a win over Oklahoma State on the road be enough to jump Texas?  Remember, we’re talking BCS rankings here, because if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech we’re most likely looking at a three way tie for first in the Big 12 South.  Thus, would a win over a presumptively top 12 Cowboys team be enough to leapfrog Texas in the BCS?  Hard to say, though it would seem like that would be an obvious yes.

Man, do we need a playoff!

6. USC (9-1)
Another fun scenario: USC could run the table, be one of the top two teams in the country, and not win their conference, because Oregon State beat them!  Yup, it’s not only possible, it’s very much realistic.  If the Beavers beat Arizona and Oregon (the two teams in that whacky 55-45 shootout today) they would make it to the Rose Bowl.  And assuming USC doesn’t make it to the top two, the mighty Trojans could potentially be staring down a spot at the (gasp) Holiday Bowl.  As for getting into the title game they need a lot of help.

7. Penn State (10-1)
If you had just run the table Penn State you’d probably be in unbelievable position to nab one of the two spots in the title game.  But you didn’t, so your chances of getting back into the picture are just about as good as FSU beating Florida in a few weeks.  Take that at face value.

So there you have it.  If Alabama and Texas Tech win out they’re in.  If they don’t, well, then things become mathematically more complicated then my brain can handle.  But we’ll worry about that later.

And by later, I mean two weeks from now.  Have a good rest of the weekend everybody!

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