With the NHL and NBA’s marathon long post-season officially over, it’s baseball here on out for the rest of the summer. Well that and vuvuzelas

SCOTT JACOBS

The NBA crowned another champion on Thursday, but the culmination of the end of the NBA season means more than no more basketball till late October.  It means that baseball is poised to take over.  Unless you’ve been watching the World Cup– which has it’s moments don’t get me wrong– it’s America’s past time from here on out.

And no, I wasn’t talking about football.

Baseball is one of those sports that’s so long, it sometimes feels like you could fall asleep in April, wake up in early July, and be just in time for the stretch run of meaningful games to begin.  Sure, watching Strasmania take over the nation, and make the Nationals relevent for the first time (let me think) ever, it makes one wonder how long the rookie sensation can keep it up.

The NL East looks like a pretty good 3 team race between the Braves, Mets, and Phillies.  The Reds are good for a change.  Everyone but atrocious Arizona is alive in the NL West.  And yet it feels like none of this matters right now.  Because at the end of the day, baseball still has over 110 games left in it’s season.  Per team that is.

If you took 2 teams that played 4 seven game series apiece that would still be just 56 games.  If you took the NBA or NHL’s regular season (82 games) and merged it with the NFL’s 16 game slate, that would still be less.

There are no juicy home run races like the summer of 1998, or any epic history that I know of on the docket.  The Rays have been chugging along with the best record nearly all season, and yet, right now they don’t feel like that big of a threat.  4-6 in your last 10 will create doubts.

But baseball is so young into this 2010 season that 41-26 really means a whole lot of nothing at this point.  And with the hard charging Yankees and Red Sox, it’s feasible that despite having the Majors best record on June 19 (technically they’re tied with New York), the Rays could get squeezed out of the playoffs come fall.

Texas is 9-1 in their last 10, and has built a 2.5 game lead in the AL West over the Angels of Los Angeles, California, United States, Planet Earth. But does it mean anything?

Here is the previous 7 seasons of teams that led their divisions on June 19, and how the season played out.

2009

June 19, 2009-  Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers
End of season- Yankees, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers
Percent difference at end of regular season from June 19th: 66%

World Series Champion: Yankees

2008

June 19, 2008-  Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks
End of season- Rays, White Sox, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers
Percent difference at end of regular season from June 19th: 33%

World Series Champion: Phillies

2007

June 19, 2007- Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Brewers, Padres
End of season- Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks
Percent difference at end of regular season from June 19th: 50%

World Series Champion: Red Sox

2006

June 19, 2006- Red Sox,Tigers, Athletics, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers
End of season- Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Mets, Cardinals, Padres
Percent difference at end of regular season from June 19th: 50%

World Series Champion: Cardinals

2005

June 19, 2005- Orioles, White Sox, Angels, Nationals, Cardinals, Padres
End of season- Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Padres
Percent difference at end of regular season from June 19th: 33%

World Series Champion: White Sox

2004

June 19, 2004- Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Marlins, Cardinals, Dodgers
End of season- Yankees, Twins, Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers
Percent difference at end of regular season from June 19th: 33%

World Series Champion: Red Sox

2003

June 19, 2003- Yankees, Twins,Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers
End of season- Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Braves, Cubs, Giants
Percent difference at end of regular season from June 19th: 33%

World Series Champion: Marlins

Here’s the breakdown by division of what it means to lead the division on June 19th in correlation with your odds of winning it at the end of the season (again, this is based on the last 7 seasons)

AL East- 43%
AL Central- 71%
AL West- 57%

NL East- 57%
NL Central- 71%
NL West- 43%

According to the numbers, since 2003 if you own a division lead in the AL or NL Central you are a pretty good bet to win it come October, unless you’re the Tigers.  Shakiest divisions: the NL West and AL East which are basically a less than 50% crapshoot.

Of the 7 World Series played since 2003, 4/7 times the winner has been a team that was leading their division on June 18th. Rather low numbers when you think about it.

So there you have it.  It truly is a mixed bag.

Does that make baseball more watchable in the drag-me-down months of June and July?  Probably not.  But it does bare keeping an eye on, sort of like a rising or falling stock.  You pay attention to it as they make their fall push, and then when the time is right, you start turning your attention to it hard core.

Last season an incredible 66% of teams that were leading their division on June 18th, were different from October.  Will that be the case this year? One thing seems for certain: Of the 7 teams leading their division right now (Yankees and Rays are tied at the moment), two of those division leaders come October will assuredly be different.  Since 2003 at least 33% of the division leaders are different at the end of the regular season from what they were on June 18th.

That means that of the Rays/Yankees, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Cardinals, and Padres, at least 2 of those division winners will be different come a few months from now.  Which ones you ask?  Our guess is as good as yours.

Photo: Getty

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