Injuries and bad luck (doh!) derailed hopes for a winning week. Week five will be different

JIM RUBERA
(Rubera writes for The Spop)

Last Week: 5-9 /  Best Bets: 0-3 (2 QBs knocked out, NOT MY FAULT) / Monday Night 0-1

Overall:  24-35-3 /  Best Bets:  6-6-1 /  Monday Night:  3-2

Kansas City +7.5 @ Indianapolis

The Colts just proved that they can lose to a bad team.  Well KC is a good team.  They haven’t been beaten straight up or against the spread and Indy is just as injured this week as they were last week.  If it stays at more than a touchdown, it’s a gift.

St. Louis @ Detroit –3

Neither of these teams’ records accurately reflect their talent levels.  The Rams are hot, but let’s not worry about the regular season win streak falling just yet.  Detroit is winless, but has been playing great football and Jahvid Best looks like he’s back to close to full strength.  Kyle Vanden Bosch and Ndamukong Suh should get to Sam Bradford plenty of times and force a few costly mistakes.

Denver @ Baltimore –7

The Ravens put a painful end to Denver’s undefeated run and high hopes last year.  No reason to expect a different result.  Yeah, Orton is on pace to throw for a zillion yards, but he hasn’t faced a really good defense yet.  Flying to the east coast for a second straight week won’t help either.

Jacksonville (pick) @ Buffalo

Buffalo is coming off a stretch where they have let up 34, 38, and 38 points and they just traded away their most experienced running back.  Jacksonville’s defense isn’t much better over the same period (38, 28, 28), but just beat the Colts and have momentum and Jones-Drew.

Atlanta –3 @ Cleveland

The Browns are playing well with Incredible Hulk look-a-like Peyton Hillis leading the charge, but Atlanta has rocketed to near the top of everybody’s power rankings with their veteran and smart play.  It would be too much of a letdown to lose to Cleveland and Mike Smith and Matt Ryan won’t let that happen.

Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati –6.5

The only other time the Bengals have played at home this year they beat Baltimore, a top 3 team.  A little home cookin’ is just what they need to get back to a winning record against a non-conference rebuilding team who got off to a lucky start.

Chicago +1 @ Carolina

Tough to call without Cutler.  Last week Todd Collins looked awful in relief and Jimmy Clausen looked great and I think that’s why the spread is where it is.  These teams are worlds apart in talent and are basically both starting backup quarterbacks.  Collins will be more prepared after a week of practice and Julius Peppers will want to be heard from in his homecoming.

Green Bay @ Washington –2.5

I’ve picked against Washington too many times.  The Packers are afraid to run the ball with their two backups and have become one dimensional.  Washington lost Portis and is down to their backup too, but they actually have faith in him and know they need to run to win.  Green Bay is a lot like New Orleans this year in that they have a scary reputation, but are not blowing people out like they used to.  The Packers’ only double digit win came at home against Buffalo.  The Redskins, on the other hand, had zero expectations this year and have beaten Philadelphia and Dallas.

New York Giants @ Houston –3

Tempting to take the Giants after they looked like world beaters last week, but let’s not forget how bad they looked on the field, on the sideline, and with their helmets in the stands the previous weeks.  Houston has too many weapons at their disposal now, including a fresh Andre Johnson returning from an ankle injury.  Covering by a field goal at home shouldn’t be a problem. If Johnson is scratched, it changes everything…including the spread.  So keep an eye out.

New Orleans –7 @ Arizona

The Saints are feeling the losses of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, but this should be the week that they’re not missed.  Arizona has let opposing offenses light them up through the air and is starting undrafted rookie Max Hall at quarterback.  Could be the Saints’ first uninteresting game.

San Diego –6 @ Oakland

As usual, the Chargers are scoring.  A lot.  The Raiders have been holding their own the last two weeks, but have lost their primary running and check-down threat Darren McFadden.  That should make the difference between a close game and a double digit loss.

Tennessee +7 @ Dallas

Need to see some more Ws from the Cowboys before they can be trusted to cover a touchdown.  Tennessee has been up and down this year and this week they’re due to be up.  Chris Johnson is always dangerous and Vince Young will be ridiculously pumped to play in front of a Texas crowd again.

Philadelphia +3 @ San Francisco

Vick was exciting, but this is the team that the Eagles started the year with and was confident in.  LeSean McCoy’s injury doesn’t look to be as bad as they thought and he should play the whole game and Kevin Kolb will get more out of Jackson and Celek than Vick could.  San Francisco has been hanging tough, but just finds ways to lose games.

Minnesota @ New York Jets –4

Too many built in excuses for the Vikings if they lose…Favre distracted by New York fans and media about his time there and his dick pics, Moss just joining the team Thursday and not having great timing with the offense, etc.  Yes, the Jets will play Santonio Holmes for the first time, but he spend the whole preseason with the team.  Revis is also back and wants to make up for getting posterized by Moss in week 2.  Until Sanchez stops producing like Brees, it will be hard to pick against the Jets.

Best Bets: San Diego, New Orleans, Tennessee

Photo: Getty

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