If recent history is any indication than yes — Why the Red Sox — along with the Rays, Twins, Mariners, A’s, Nationals, Astros, and even the World Champion Giants may be in bigger trouble than you think

SCOTT JACOBS

Well it’s baseball season and we’re now a week into the 2011 MLB campaign. Though 162 games deep, no season can cease to quicker disappointment and delusion like baseball season. Just 6 games into the new season Red Sox Nation is ready to jump off a cliff, their 0-6 team a black eye to their Spring Training World Series dreams.  (They may want to get sports team insurance or maybe just sports insurance before they do)

But does a bad start truly mean the end all for baseball teams?  I mean it’s early April, and it seems as if some are already writing off the Sawx from being relevant this year. There’s always next year?  O c’mon, it can’t be that bad. Can it?  For that matter are teams in the cellar of their division a handful of games in, truly in trouble?

Actually, yes.  Yes they are.

An examination of the standings roughly 6 games into the season every year since 2002, suggests that a slow start, even a mediocre one that leaves you in last place or tied for last place just a week in, usually means trouble — despite the fact that teams still have 156 games to figure out their dilemmas.

Shocking right?

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Since 2002, after 6 games, 71 teams have found themselves in the cellar or sharing the basement of their division with another team.  Of those 71 teams, 11 have made the playoffs (5 as Wild Cards, 6 as Division winners with 5 coming from the A.L. and 6 from the N.L.).  That equates to less than a 15% chance of getting into the playoffs when you do the math.

However, like any statistical analysis there are exceptions to every rule.  In 2006 three of the seven teams either tied or locked in last that early in the season made the postseason — all won their division too (Yankees, Twins, and Padres).  But that is not the norm.

Six of those years 1 or no team made the playoffs after a poor 6 game start.  Last year for example, no team that started out in last 6 games in made the playoffs. None. Zilch. Nada.

Ironically though it’s the Red Sox who get out of the basement better than any other team in baseball and into the postseason.

Postseason appearances after being in last/tied for last after 6 games since 2002:
3 – Red Sox  (09, 08, 05)
2 – Phillies (08, 07)
1 – Yankees  (06)
1 – Twins (06)
1 – Padres (06)
1 – Astros (04)
1- Braves (03)
1- Marlins (03)

Yupp, it’s Boston (the team off to an 0-6 start that has made the playoffs more time than any after an early slow start.  Interestingly, all of Boston’s scratching and clawing has garnered them Wild Card berths in all those years.

More fun facts!  Since 2002 of that list, only 2 made the World Series: The Phillies in 08 and the Marlins in 03,with both NL East teams winning it all (fitting for Florida considering how whacky the Marlins history has been).

So what does it all mean? Make of it what you will.  But the next time you hear an analyst proclaim a poor early season start a death-knell to a team’s World Series hopes maybe they’re actually telling the truth.

If only 2 teams out of 71 got themselves out of the early cellar in April and into a championship t-shirt by October in the last 9 seasons, maybe Boston really is screwed.

Or maybe not.

Photo: Getty

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