Fun Fact: NFL QBs who throw for over 400 yards usually lose
NFL teams whose quarterbacks throw for over 400 yards have a 3-10 record this season.
MITCH BLATT
Matthew Stafford led the NFL in passing last week, with 408 yards, in a 17-31 loss to the New Orleans Saints. That got us at Juiced Sports thinking: How often do NFL QBs who throw for over 400 yards come up with the win?
Not often, in recent history.
Since 2006, there have been 50 instances of quarterbacks throwing for over 400 yards in a game. Only 16 times their team has won. Prior to 2006, their team had won 116 out of 194.
This season, teams whose quarterback throws for over 400 yards have a 3-10 record. That includes one game where both quarterbacks threw for over 400 yards. Tom Brady and the Patriots beat Chad Henne and the Dolphins 38-24 on September 12. The teams whose QBs threw for over 400 yards have lose 5 straight. In 2010, the record was 3-9.
Why?
The reason might have something to do with the oft-cited statistics about how often teams win when they run the ball 20 or more times. (“The Patriots have a 42-1 record when the RB carries the ball 20 of more times in a road game.” – ESPN)
Its not the act of running the ball itself that results in winning games; rather, when a team is leading, they will run the ball more often to wind down the clock, so they will naturally run the ball more often in games that they are winning. The opposite is true for shootouts that the team is either losing or that are closely contested and high-scoring. Teams will throw the ball more often when they need to come back or keep up the scoring, thus giving them an opportunity to rack up yardage. These statistics are probably more effects of the outcome of the game rather than causes.
Indeed, in 10 of the 13 games this season in which a quarterback has thrown for 400 or more yards, the winning team scored 30 or more points. In 10 of the 13 games, the quarterback who threw for 400 yards also attempted 40 or more passes. The quarterback also threw interceptions in 11 of the games and 3 interceptions twice.
The best performance? Aaron Rodgers went 29-of-38 for 408 yards, 4 TDs and an interception in the Packers October 2 win over the Broncos. The worst? On 51 passes Matt Schaub could just complete 24 for 416 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs as the Texans lost to the Raiders.
For more fun facts about 400 yard games, check out Wikipedia’s 400 yard-passing games page.
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[...] track record of leading the NFL in weekly passing yards, though a Juiced Sports analysis shows that quarterbacks who throw for 400 yards in a game usually lose. Or maybe Stafford’s just unlucky. He apparently also loses when he throws for [...]