SCOTT JACOBS

The Divisional Round has arrived, which means the best, most exciting round of the NFL playoffs is here. And what a quadrant of matchups we’ve been given.

Saints @ 49ers

New Orleans’ high powered offense takes its act to the Bay Area to take on San Fran’s relentless D in a battle of opposites (see what you could have had BCS!) This folks, is truly a clash of the titans.  Both teams are 13-3 and both teams are really good at what they do best.  The Saints are not quite the same show on the road as they are at home, but with Drew Brees at the helm they have a chance to win any game.  The question here is with the 49ers and their lack of experience. 

The 49ers haven’t been to the playoffs since 2002 (the year the Texans began play) and Alex Smith has never played a post-season game (though he did prove to be really good in the BCS back with Utah). The Saints will try to air it out while San Fran will try to grind it out. We’ve seen matchups like this before, with teams that can’t afford to make mistakes.  The 2008 Dolphins for example, had just 13 turnovers the year they won the AFC East.  But they were a turnover machine in their AFC Wild Card matchup against the veteran, more accomplished Ravens, and the game was never truly close.  That game, mind you, was also in Miami. The point being that teams who rely on avoiding turnovers to win games walk a fine line and leave themselves extremely vulnerable when they make a mistake.  The Saints have the kind of offense that can come back in games and is used to throwing it around.  The 49ers like to control the line of scrimmage and hold onto the ball.  That does not work when you fall behind.

The 49ers have had a tremendous season and some gutsy wins (their victory over the Giants immediately comes to mind) and Jim Harbaugh is practically a lock for Coach of the Year.  All of that said, I like the Saints, who are ready to prove to the world that they can win that elusive road playoff game. The 49ers will be back, but it’s the Saints who are determined to get another crack at the Pack.  Will Green Bay get there? Keep reading! Saints 27, 49ers 20.

Broncos @ Patriots

The NFL scheduled 4 games this weekend, but according to ESPN only one important one: Denver and New England. A lop-sided matchup on paper (the 9-8 Broncos were 5 games worse than the Pats in the regular season) this one only gets its juice from one man — Tim Tebow. America’s newly crowned most popular (and most scrutinized) athlete, Tebow and Denver have a massive uphill climb if they hope to even remain competitive with the Pats.  But they can keep it close.  Here’s how:

1. Score early. Denver is not built for a shoot-out. If New England immediately gets off to a fast start, forget about it.
2. Hold onto that ball. The Broncos are not built for turnovers either. They rely on their league leading ground game to open up their passing attack. Denver can ill-affrd to give the Pats a short field. We all saw how that worked out for them in their regular season meeting in Denver, when the Broncos coughed up the ball 3 times in a horrific 2nd quarter, en route to a Pats rout.
3. Churn out the yards, churn out the clock. When you keep the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands, he’s not effective. New England’s defense is bad, really bad, and if there’s any team Denver should be able to score on, its the Pats.  If Denver can run at will and tire out New England’s defensive line, Tebow can get the wide open throws and good protection he had against the Steelers. We all saw how that worked out.
4. Play aggressive. But play smart.

If all of that happens Denver could potentially pull off the epic upset.  The Pats haven’t won a playoff game since that incredible 18-1 season, but they have to feel like the AFC is there’s for the taking. The Broncos are a scrappy team and they really do believe, but the Patriots are just better. Denver scores, but not nearly enough as New England closes in on another Super Bowl berth. Patriots 30, Broncos 17

Texans @ Ravens

The upstart Texans, riding high behind their rookie 3rd string QB, T.J. Yates and powerful running game head to Baltimore to take on Joe “I can’t get no respect” Flacco and the Ravens.  Baltimore finally gets their much anticipated shot to host a Divisional playoff game, and at least on paper — their odds look pretty darn good (They’re 8-0 at the big CrabCake this year). Throw in the fact that their arch-nemesis is now off golfing — I hear St. Andrews and Celtic Manor are beautiful this time of year — and all the pieces are in place for a deep playoff run and who knows, maybe a return to the Super Bowl. There is some concern about Baltimore’s aging defense and the Ravens unbalanced play at times this year (look great one minute, lose to inferior opponents on the road the next), but no one can doubt Baltimore’s experience.  The Ravens haven’t missed the postseason dance ever since that 2007 debacle, in which they canned Brian Billick and brought in John Harbaugh.  It’s worked out nicely.

But Baltimore is sort of stuck in that — really good team unable to get over the hump phase — and their window may be closing. The Texans should just be happy to be here, after securing their first ever playoff win — Only took ‘em a decade! But Houston has a shot. If they can neutralize Ray Rice and force Flacco and friends to beat them, they might be able to force the Ravens into making mistakes. Although, Flacco’s splits between home and road are identical — 10 TDs and 6 picks. Which is odd when you consider the Ravens had just a .500 record on the road.

Houston will rely on Arian Foster to tire out Baltimore’s D. Expect the Texans to try to run, run, run, and if successful, use T.J. Yates on play action to offset Baltimore stacking the box.  The Ravens are a confusing team to figure out, but the Texans are too young and inexperienced. T.J. Yates played well at home last week, but that was in front of his fans.  Ravens fans are brutal and hungry for another Super Bowl and I fully expect them to rattle the young QB. It will only take a few turnovers, and I expect Yates to get picked off twice, for the Ravens to roll comfortably into the AFC Title game. Ravens 23 Texans 10.

Giants @ Packers

Green Bay didn’t get the undefeated season, but they do get a huge shot to exact revenge on the New York Giants, who promptly ended Brett Favre’s Packers career on the very field the two teams will play on in the late game Sunday. People are really starting to drink the NYG Kool Aid, after the Giants whooped up on Atlanta last Sunday.  That, combined with how well New York has played of late, combined with how the Giants played Green Bay when they met up at MetLife, has people picking the Giants. O how people forget.  Green Bay was 15-1 this year and they steamrolled teams at home.

The Giants were 9-7 and barely eeked out the NFC East. While New York has the horses to hassle Aaron Rodgers, and while Eli Manning has been on this stage before and won, the Packers are a superior team. Plain and simple. Once they got to 10-0, Green Bay’s focus shifted to the playoffs, where their season has now become championship or bust.  While the Giants have been there, the Pack are reigning Super Bowl champs and a team loaded at nearly every offensive position.

If the Giants can get pressure on Rodgers and force mistakes and punts, they can pull out the win.  But the Packers have been too good all year not to get the much anticipated rematch with the Saints. It’ll be close and the best game of the weekend, but I’m taking Green Bay at Lambeau. Packers 28, Giants 24.

Photo: Getty

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